Seth WalderSep 7, 2026, 06:30 AM ET
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Every preseason, we forecast possibilities for how the upcoming NFL season could pan out. Which teams might emerge? Which teams could go on a run? And which teams should win the Super Bowl?

But today is a day for absolutes. ESPN's Football Power Index simulates the season thousands of times to build our projections ... but what if we look at only one simulation from the set? Just one possible outcome, one way things could play out. Life is a single simulation, after all.

To be clear, what follows is neither my predictions nor the prognostications of ESPN Analytics. This is simply the story of simulation No. 9,187. Let's see how it plays out (with a little creative license woven in).

See FPI's projections for the 2026 season

Hype on Bears and Texans falls very flat

These teams have been trendy preseason picks to go on deep playoff runs. But they didn't just miss the postseason in this simulation -- they weren't even close.

For the Bears, it became apparent by midseason that the hoped-for growth in Year 2 under Ben Johnson wasn't going to happen. They were 3-6 through Week 10, with quarterback Caleb Williams still struggling with accuracy and the running game not enjoying the efficiency it showed in 2025.

Houston's story was different. The Texans were 6-3 and firmly in the playoff race through 10 weeks, a game behind the Jaguars in the AFC South. But the version of C.J. Stroud we saw against the Patriots in the 2025 divisional playoffs emerged in the second half of the season. And Houston's vaunted defense fell off dramatically, too. The result? An improbable eight-game losing streak to finish the season.

Chicago and Houston sported 6-11 records, with both teams' fanbases focused on their top-10 picks in the 2027 NFL draft rather than the playoff runs they expected entering the season.

Cowboys win a mediocre NFC East

With two weeks left, the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants were in a three-way tie with mediocre 7-8 records. It took weeks for Philadelphia to find its offensive rhythm under new coordinator Sean Mannion. The Cowboys' new-look defense held up well early in the season but couldn't sustain that improvement, causing Dallas to enter the final two weeks on a four-game losing streak. The Giants' passing game struggled early with wide receiver Malik Nabers being limited but got better as he got healthier.

All three teams had a shot at the playoffs with two games left. The Cowboys dealt a major blow to New York in Week 17, winning a 19-7 defensive battle. The Eagles upset the 49ers 23-19 on the road. But the Cowboys had the tiebreaker advantage, so Dallas took the division when it beat the Commanders in Week 18 even though Philadelphia prevailed over the Giants to finish with an identical 9-8 record.

Dallas got the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs as the division winner with the worst record while the Eagles missed out. That earned the Cowboys a home wild-card game against the fifth-seeded, defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Dak Prescott lit up Seattle's defense, throwing two touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb in a 31-19 victory that had Cowboys fans dreaming of a trip to the Super Bowl.

But it was not to be. The Cowboys lost 27-20 to the Lions in Detroit a week later to fall short of the conference championship round yet again.

Chiefs retake the AFC West, Broncos miss the playoffs

The Chiefs won the AFC West nine seasons in a row from 2016 to 2024 and made three consecutive Super Bowls before a wildly disappointing 2025 campaign in which they finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs. Kansas City got back on top in 2026 -- of the division, at least.

It was almost a wire-to-wire performance. The Chiefs took sole possession of first place after Week 4 and never gave it up despite the Chargers' best efforts. Patrick Mahomes rebounded to some degree, returning to being a top-five QBR passer but not the MVP. And receiver Rashee Rice finally achieved the full season of success that had previously eluded him.

The 12-5 Chiefs earned the No. 2 seed in the AFC, with the Chargers making the playoffs as the No. 5 seed at 10-7. The Chargers got the last laugh, though, beating Kansas City 27-24 at Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional playoffs.

As for the Broncos, who were arguably a Bo Nix injury short of making it to the Super Bowl a year ago? They regressed badly and finished 7-10.

Patriots, Steelers fail to reach the postseason

The Patriots looked like they were going to back up their status as reigning AFC champions, sporting a 6-3 record and a 1½-game lead in the AFC East through Week 9. But New England stumbled against some heavy hitters, losing to the Lions, Chargers, Bills, Vikings and Broncos in the back half of the season. That resulted in a 9-8 record, which was not good enough for a wild-card spot, as the Pats lost tiebreakers to the Colts and Bengals.

Pittsburgh also fell short in its first season under Mike McCarthy, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers was below average again, and the rest of the roster wasn't strong enough to make up for it, so the Steelers limped to an 8-9 record.

Jaguars take the AFC South, but Colts steal their thunder

Jacksonville came out of the gates hot, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence picking up right where he left off in 2025. The Jaguars started the season 7-2 and pulled away after Houston imploded, clinching the division by Week 16. The Jaguars lost their final two games to finish 10-7 but safely made the playoffs as the No. 3 seed.

Jacksonville earned the right to face division foe Indianapolis at home in the wild-card round. The Colts got into the playoffs by beating a Jaguars team that was resting its starters in Week 18 and repeated the feat against Jacksonville's A-team, shutting down Lawrence and the Jags' offense to win 18-12.

It was a 180-degree reversal for Indianapolis, which lost its last seven games in 2025 to go from 8-2 to out of the playoffs. But the Colts' Cinderella run in 2026 ended with a 55-23 loss to top-seeded Buffalo in the divisional playoffs.

Panthers start 0-7, but Jets earn the No. 1 draft pick

The Bryce Young era in Carolina ended at some point during the team's seven-game, season-opening losing streak. He's under contract for next year, but it became clear that Carolina was going to need to find another quarterback -- perhaps in the 2027 draft. But it won't be with the first pick. The Panthers played three different quarterbacks during the back half of the season and finished with a 6-4 burst to go 6-11, ending with the No. 4 pick.

The honor of selecting first went to the Jets, who finished two games behind everyone else in going 2-15. So will the Jets draft Arch Manning with the first pick? Dante Moore? CJ Carr? Darian Mensah? Drew Mestemaker? Trinidad Chambliss? Someone else? New York is spoiled for choice, especially given its three first-round picks.

Exceptional NFC West comes down to the wire ...

The NFC West boasts three of FPI's top five teams entering 2026. Those preseason expectations came to fruition in simulation 9,187.

Through 12 weeks, the Seahawks, 49ers and Rams were each 9-2 -- with only three of those six combined losses coming to teams outside the division! Fast forward to Week 18, with the 49ers and Seahawks entering their finales tied at 12-4 and the Rams one game back at 11-5. But the Rams came out firing in Week 18, blowing out the Seahawks 37-8. The 49ers destroyed the last-place Cardinals 30-3, securing not only the division but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle and Los Angeles had to settle for the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, respectively.

So that had the 49ers feeling good entering the playoffs. Was this the year Kyle Shanahan and San Francisco would get over the Super Bowl hump?

The Rams get the last laugh ... to an extent

All three NFC West stalwarts were considered Super Bowl contenders entering the postseason. But the Seahawks fizzled quickly, falling to the Cowboys to end their title defense. The Rams almost suffered the same fate, but a late Matthew Stafford-to-Davante Adams touchdown pass lifted Los Angeles over the Buccaneers for a 27-24 wild-card victory.

That set up a third meeting against the 49ers with the season on the line. San Francisco swept the first two, but this one became the Myles Garrett game. The superstar pass rusher delivered 2.5 sacks and deflected a pass that was intercepted. It was just enough, as the Rams prevailed over Brock Purdy and the 49ers 24-21 to advance to the NFC Championship Game.

But the superteam couldn't finish the job. As good as the Rams were, they fell in the NFC title game for a second consecutive season, this time to the Lions. Because although Garrett was great in the divisional round, a different pass rusher was better all year long and in the NFC Championship Game.

Aidan Hutchinson, who would be awarded Defensive Player of the Year before the Super Bowl, wreaked havoc on the Rams' offense. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown connected for two touchdowns to lead Detroit to a 20-17 victory and another near miss for Los Angeles.

Bills fall short of the Super Bowl again, losing to Chargers

Not only did the 12-5 Bills get their AFC East title back in emphatic fashion, winning the division by three games, but they edged the Chiefs for the top seed, taking the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a 31-30 win over Kansas City in Week 12.

Buffalo fans were buzzing, believing that this (finally!) could be the year that Josh Allen leads the Bills to the Super Bowl. And the blowout divisional-round win over the Colts did nothing to quell the frenzy. But the Bills' potent offense suddenly fell quiet when it was needed the most.

The Bills scored only seven points in the AFC Championship Game thanks to two Allen fumbles and an interception thrown to Tarheeb Still. Buffalo's defense more than held its own, but Los Angeles scored just enough to win 10-7 on the road to get Jim Harbaugh back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 14 years.

The season showed that Buffalo could be successful under first-year coach Joe Brady. But Brady suffered the same fate as his predecessor Sean McDermott, falling short of that elusive Super Bowl.

Here are full scores and outcomes to playoff games in our simulation:

Wild-card round

Chiefs 32, Bengals 23
Colts 18, Jaguars 12
Chargers 31, Ravens 29
Lions 27, Packers 24
Rams 27, Buccaneers 24
Cowboys 31, Seahawks 19

Divisional round

Bills 55, Colts 23
Chargers 27, Chiefs 24
Rams 24, 49ers 21
Lions 27, Cowboys 20

Conference championships

Chargers 10, Bills 7
Lions 20, Rams 17

Lions win Super Bowl LXI

In August, Detroit coach Dan Campbell said, "Our window is not closed." How right he was.

The Chargers-Lions Super Bowl was expected to be close, with the Lions favored by only 1.5 points. It lived up to the billing. After two Jahmyr Gibbs touchdowns put Detroit up 14-0, it looked as if the Lions might run away with the title. But the Chargers came storming back on their home field, with Justin Herbert hitting Ladd McConkey for a touchdown to end the first quarter before finding Keaton Mitchell on a wheel route for a long TD pass to tie the game 14-14 at halftime.

Back and forth the game swung, with Cameron Dicker hitting a 55-yard field goal to put Los Angeles up 31-30 with 90 seconds left. But that was too much time for Goff.

After a chunk passing play to Jameson Williams, the Lions found themselves in field goal range with plenty of time remaining. They handed the ball to Gibbs several times to inch closer and burn Los Angeles' timeouts. Jake Bates connected on a 42-yard field goal as time expired to win the title.

Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown and Campbell really did it. The Lions are Super Bowl champions.

ESPN senior sports analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this article.

Let's imagine one way the 2026 NFL season could play out: Lions and Chargers to the Super Bowl?

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