Ben Solak
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Ben Solak
ESPN
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Seth Walder
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Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics
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Matt Bowen
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Matt Bowen
ESPN Writer

Sep 11, 2026, 11:15 AM ET

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, favorite defensive props and the top game to bet in Week 1.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Solak's plays | Walder's props | Bowen's Game of the Week

Solak's plays

Here's what I'm focused on and what is driving my bets this week:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals total points UNDER 50.5 (-112)

Two of the league's worst defenses from last season meet in their first gut check after offseason rehabilitation. The Bengals (30th in defensive DVOA last year, per FTN Fantasy) made splashier moves, adding DT Dexter Lawrence II, DE Boye Mafe and S Bryan Cook. The Buccaneers, who were closer to average (18th in DVOA), reimagined the linebacker room with Alex Anzalone, Josiah Trotter and added to the pass rush with rookie LB Rueben Bain Jr., DT Calijah Kancey (back from injury) and LB David Walker (back from injury) in hopes of improving a pass defense that was 27th in dropback success rate allowed.

I buy the defensive improvements for both teams. I also expect some herky-jerkiness on offense for both squads. Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow played only two series each in the preseason as both teams largely sat their starters. We've seen Week 1 totals come in dramatically below expectations over the past several seasons, as teams have taken a more cautious approach to preseason snaps. From 2022 to 2025, Week 1 unders are 84-44 (65.6%).

I would love to get this number at 51 if I can. The Buccaneers got great news for WR1 Emeka Egbuka, who practiced in full (toe injury) Thursday and looks good to go for Sunday. I don't think we're at risk of losing the 50, so waiting on this one and snagging some 51.5s -- if they arise -- appears to be the right course of action.

David Montgomery anytime touchdown scorer (-115)

I was hoping to get Montgomery's outright rushing totals, but the books wisely priced him (53.5 yards) well above teammate Woody Marks (30.5 yards). I think the touchdown line is still too low. The Houston Texans had to use Marks at the goal line last season; they had nobody else in the backfield to utilize. But between the two backs, offensive coordinator Nick Caley will likely prefer to use the steady and physical Montgomery at that spot in 2026.

Caley's offense struggled to successfully run the ball in 2025, but one of the Texans' bright spots came against the Buffalo Bills in Week 12. Marks had 74 yards on 16 carries, including three rushes from inside the 6-yard line. He couldn't punch one home, but I'll bet you Montgomery has a greater chance at it. And the Texans have retooled their offensive line (guards Keylan Rutledge and Evan Brown are new starters) while beefing up their tight ends room (Marlin Klein, Foster Moreau) in the effort to become more physical between the tackles. Against a defense such as Buffalo's, which has undersized linebackers and safeties and a new defensive coordinator (Jim Leonhard) trying to figure out how to make Sean McDermott's players work in his system, the potential for a dominant ground game is high.

With 13, 12 and eight touchdowns in his past three seasons in Detroit, Montgomery is sixth among all backs in rushing touchdowns over that span. This is what he does best. If he has the lion's share of the rushes over Marks, as we expect, this number is soft. And even if the backs split time evenly, Montgomery will get the goal-line touches first.

Bhayshul Tuten receiving yards UNDER 11.5 (-117)

The first puzzle piece to solving the mystery of the Jacksonville Jaguars' backfield will finally fall Sunday. The trio of Chris Rodriguez Jr., Tuten and LeQuint Allen Jr. has been a conundrum for fantasy drafters all summer, and even a Week 1 match with the Cleveland Browns might not give us a perfect picture. Allen (hip) did not practice Wednesday and logged a limited practice Thursday.

Allen is a third-down, pass-protecting back for Jacksonville, so his potential absence Sunday would open some more late-down work. Maybe that work goes to Tuten and helps him clear this receiving total? I'm not convinced. Pass protection was an issue for Tuten last year. In joint practices with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in training camp, which offer a good reflection of depth chart standings, Rodriguez was in for pass-protection reps over Tuten. I'm not sold that Tuten gets much more third-down work if Allen is out.

Backs can get early-down receiving work, of course. But Tuten cleared this number only three times last season playing behind Travis Etienne Jr. and cleared only 10 routes in one game all season. The Jaguars like him as a ball carrier, and Trevor Lawrence has never been a high-volume passer for running backs, preferring to push the ball to his receivers.

I have lots of outs in this one: Allen playing, Rodriguez taking a bigger role than anticipated, Tuten proving to be a bad pass catcher generally.

Kendrick Bourne receiving yards OVER 18.5 (-110)

When Bourne entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2017, he joined the San Francisco 49ers and learned under a passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach named Mike LaFleur. Nine years later, Bourne is the veteran WR3 for LaFleur, now head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. Bourne loves LaFleur, and LaFleur loves Bourne. Bourne came to Arizona in free agency because of LaFleur, despite the Cardinals' uncertain quarterback situation.

"I'm like, 'I trust you, man. I don't care if you don't have a quarterback, I don't care if you don't have an O-line. I trust you, and I know what you're going to build. And if I'm a piece to that puzzle, hey, add me now and you can deal with the quarterback situation later,'" Bourne said of joining LaFleur in Arizona.

Bourne will get playing time. Maybe not too much behind incumbent starters Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, but in all of the Los Angeles Rams' 13 personnel hype last season (LaFleur was OC), it's easy to forget that they still played more 11 personnel (58.7%) than the average team. LaFleur's Cardinals aren't even ready to play 13 personnel yet -- TE2 Tip Reiman is on the PUP list, so the Cardinals had to trade for Hunter Long on cutdown day to fill the TE3 spot.

As a 9.5-point underdog facing the Los Angeles Chargers and their shiny new offense, we should see the Cardinals get into pass-happy mode quickly. Those snaps will be 3-WR sets, which should get Bourne on the field. One big play is enough to clear this number, as are a few easier underneath completions against soft zones while the Cardinals try to cover a multi-score deficit.

Dontayvion Wicks receptions OVER 2.5 (-115)

Not often do you get a team's WR2 with a line of 2.5 receptions, but here we are. By all of the offseason reporting, Wicks was the Philadelphia Eagles' consistent WR2 while rookie WR Makai Lemon missed time because of a hamstring injury, and Lemon's status in the starting lineup has been impeded by his unavailability. Lemon is listed as the Eagles' punt returner on their starting depth chart and is a slot-style receiver body type -- more likely to play in three-WR sets. Wicks is one of the few players on the team with scheme knowledge, having played in Green Bay while Sean Mannion was on the coaching staff. It's fair to expect an 80% snap share for Wicks in Week 1.

Even if we're wrong and Lemon plays over Wicks in 2-WR sets, the Eagles should largely be an 11-personnel team. Over the past two seasons, the Packers (61.5%) and Eagles (59.6%) have been above average in their rate of 11 personnel. With the slow camp for rookie TE Eli Stowers, the Eagles won't be in much 12 personnel -- their TE2 is Johnny Mundt, a fine blocker but ineffective pass catcher -- and they never run much 2-back stuff either. They don't have a fullback on the roster.

So, the floor for Wicks' route participation is comfortably high enough that I like his overs here. Receiving yards or receptions is tricky. Wicks was a big-play receiver with the Packers, but in a larger role in Philly, his depth of target might come down. We'll track receptions for the column here, but I'll be on both numbers.

Walder's prop bets

Defensive plays

Note: Sack and tackle bets will be added as odds become available.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST Anytime TD (+650)

On one hand, Tampa Bay is going against Joe Burrow and a formidable Cincinnati Bengals offense. On the other, Todd Bowles' blitz-happy scheme against a shaky Bengals offensive line increases the possibility for chaos -- and that's what we're betting on here. Add in that the Bengals are trying to shift to a more under-center approach that could yield some growing pains and that my model likes this bet without even knowing that last part, and I'm in. I wouldn't bet this at any worse odds than +650, however.

Offensive plays

Tua Tagovailoa interceptions UNDER 0.5 (+135)

The vibes around Tagovailoa are bad. He almost lost a quarterback competition to Michael Penix Jr. without Penix playing and barely practicing. It's no wonder his interception odds are juiced toward the over, and, I assume, plenty of people are betting on that over. But my interception model indicates the odds have gone too far. It stands to reason that if the Falcons aren't confident in Tagovailoa -- and their actions indicate that's the case -- then Kevin Stefanski will probably try to avoid risks with him. And Stefanski is a coach who has leaned toward the run, anyway. Tagovailoa could avoid an interception with a quick and conservative passing game, even if it's in a loss. At plus money, it's worth the risk, and I would bet this at +120 or better. Tagovailoa appeared to get hurt in practice Thursday and was officially limited, but I don't think that changes this bet.

Kalif Raymond 3-plus receptions (+223)

Virtually all of my bets in this space come from statistical models I've created. But every once in a while I can live a little, right? This one is all vibes. Rome Odunze is banged up. Luther Burden III missed time in the preseason. You know who might be helpful? A veteran like Raymond, available for underneath targets from Caleb Williams. Raymond might not have generated near the fantasy buzz that the two aforementioned wide receivers or TE Colston Loveland did, but I feel like early in the season, Raymond might be on the field more than we might have otherwise expected.

Bowen's Game of the Week

Chicago Bears (-3, 46.5) at Carolina Panthers
1 p.m. ET on Fox, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

Laying three points on the road in Week 1 isn't ideal, but I see the Bears as the better team. Also, last season (including the playoffs), Ben Johnson's club went 12-6-1 ATS, including 5-4 in road games. Good numbers. So, let's look at the matchup ...

When the Bears have the ball: Johnson's offense will see a zone-heavy pattern from the Panthers. Last season, Carolina played zone defense on 69.5% of coverage snaps (third most in the NFL), and the Panthers led the league in Cover 3 (three-deep zone). Answers here? Sure. Johnson can attack the inside windows with tight end Colston Loveland and throw leveled routes into the boundary, among other options. Plus, Johnson can use WR Kalif Raymond to lift the safeties and create voids for quarterback Caleb Williams on intermediate throws. Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, here. The critical factor, however, remains the run game against a Panthers defense that allowed 4.5 YPC in 2025. Look for the Bears to deploy their tight ends creatively to add numbers on zone run concepts. A good matchup to watch versus a Panthers defense featuring Derrick Brown up front, safety Tre'Von Moehrig on the edges and free agent addition Devin Lloyd at linebacker.

When the Panthers have the ball: Look for coordinator Dennis Allen to mix zone and man schemes, moving late from two-high shells to change the picture for quarterback Bryce Young, while sending situational pressure if the Bears can't generate a rush opposite of defensive end Montez Sweat. In key moments, I would love to see cornerback Jaylon Johnson matched up (and traveling in coverage) versus Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, but don't be surprised if the wide receiver is deployed out of the slot at a higher rate because nickel corner Kyler Gordon is on IR. Let's also focus on the run game. Who emerges from a Carolina backfield featuring Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks against a Bears run defense that ranked in the bottom five last season (5.0 YPC)? There's a reason I'm taking the over in this one.

The picks: Bears moneyline, Bears -3, total OVER 46.5

Now, let's get to some prop bets ...

D'Andre Swift receiving yards OVER 14.5 (-107)

Swift, who averaged 18.7 receiving yards per game in '25, has the ball-carrier vision to produce after the catch on screens and outlet throws. And with the amount of zone coverage I expect to see from Carolina, Swift can also operate as a checkdown option for Williams to hit this over.

Caleb Williams rushing yards OVER 19.5 (-109)

Williams averaged 22.8 yards rushing per game last season. Plus, given the zone coverages I expect to see from Carolina, Williams will have opportunities -- when he gets to the edges of the pocket -- to pull the ball down. And Johnson could sprinkle in some designed carries, too.

Tetairoa McMillan receiving yards OVER 59.5 (-110)

As I said above, we could see more slot targets for McMillan. Press the seams here. Find open turf versus zone coverage. Plus, the Panthers can scheme for McMillan from perimeter alignments on deep in-breakers off play-action. McMillan topped the 60-yard receiving mark in eight games last season.

Jalen Coker anytime TD (+300)

Coker scored only three touchdowns last season, but this is about player traits (and route usage) versus the Bears' secondary. Coker has the third-level ability to separate over the top. And he had a vertical route percentage of 34.3 % last season.

Bryce Young rushing attempts OVER 3.5 (-103)

Young averaged 3.4 attempts per game last season, so the line is solid here. Why bet it? Young's willingness to play outside of structure. This is where the Panthers' quarterback can look to create as a runner when the pocket breaks down.

AFC East

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Week 1 best bets for Sunday afternoon's games

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