ESPN

Sep 4, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

A lot has changed since the end of last season and Week 1 of this season. And you can be sure much more will change between now and Super Bowl Sunday.

Entering last season, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks were both 60-1 to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots were as long as 120-1 after Week 3. We know how that all worked out.

Heading into the 2026 season, the Los Angeles Rams are the Super Bowl favorite at +500, with a sizable gap between them and the Baltimore Ravens (10-1), Buffalo Bills (10-1) and the defending champion Seahawks (12-1). Following the top four, 10 teams have odds from 16-1 to 20-1.

Looking at divisions, among teams that missed the playoffs last season but are favored to win their division are the Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The only team that won its division last year and is favored to do so again is the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.

The Rams are the favorites to win the NFC, and the Ravens have the shortest odds in the AFC, followed closely by the Bills.

So, how do we bet these teams? We asked our analysts to break down the odds and offer their best bets.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

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Detroit Lions to win NFC North (+175)

Pamela Maldonado: Detroit has real flaws, especially along an offensive line that never fully recovered from losing its veteran core. But the schedule gives the Lions a major rebound opportunity. They project to face the NFL's easiest schedule, including the easiest slate of run defense, which sets up perfectly for Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit went 9-8 last season despite brutal injury and fumble luck. With better health and typical regression, the Lions should look more like their winning selves. In Green Bay, Micah Parsons' early absence leaves too much of the season resting on Jordan Love and the offense to carry an average defense, while the Bears' defense will learn if it can hold up if it can't duplicate the turnover magic that fueled last year's success. That leaves +175 for the Lions worth backing.

Houston Texans to win Super Bowl (18-1)

Matt Bowen: We have to start with the defense in Houston. It's a championship-caliber unit that allowed the second-fewest points per game last season (17.4), and we know DeMeco Ryans has the pass rushers to close out games. But we also have to look at the offensive side of the ball. The Texans traded for running back David Montgomery and upgraded the offensive line. If Houston can run the ball with serious efficiency and create more positive situations for quarterback C.J. Stroud as a passer, this team can go on a real run.

Texans to win AFC (+870)

Joe Fortenbaugh: Houston is priced like a team with an elite defense but a lousy quarterback. So, I ask you this: What happens if Stroud is average this season? Better yet, what happens if Stroud is above average this season? Imagine competent quarterback play, much like Stroud exhibited during his rookie season, to go alongside what very well might be the league's nastiest defense? This is a value play, as we're buying low on Stroud.

Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC (15-1)

Ben Solak: The Texans are almost twice as likely to win the conference (+870) as the Jaguars, and they have a big edge in the division as well (+105 to +245). I don't think the margin is that big between the two, and I like Jacksonville divisional and conference bets accordingly. But by weighted DVOA, which prefers recent games to long past games, the Jaguars were the third-best team in football and best in the AFC -- the Texans were fifth and second, respectively. Houston made the bigger offseason additions in S Reed Blankenship and OGs Wyatt Teller and Keylan Rutledge, but it has also endured the bigger offseason injury (WR Jayden Higgins, torn right ACL). On a neutral field, my numbers and my heart both think Houston is the better team -- but it's by a slim margin.

Minnesota Vikings to win NFC North (+450)

Solak: I power rate the NFC North very closely across the board, and the Vikings are listed as a clear fourth in the divisional odds -- so that's where I want my money. Kyler Murray is an average starting quarterback. Since entering the league, he's dead average by dropback success rate (47.2%) and EPA per dropback (0.08). His QBR is 12th among 40 qualifying quarterbacks! Kevin O'Connell's Vikings, as long as they have average quarterback play, deliver winning seasons thanks to a highly explosive passing attack and opportunistic defense. Even if the departures of LB Jonathan Greenard and S Harrison Smith slow down the Vikings' playmaking on defense, much of their magic is the result of Brian Flores' scheming, which is still in the building. Minnesota should be in the mix for the division the whole way.

New England Patriots to win Super Bowl (18-1)

Liz Loza: The schedule has stiffened, but so has the squad. New England spent the offseason methodically building around budding superstar Drake Maye by trading for deep threat A.J. Brown and receiver Romeo Doubs. Running back TreVeyon Henderson returns for his second year to give balance to the ground game, while new offensive line investments figure to protect the Patriots' franchise QB. On defense, the addition of safety Kevin Byard should buoy the secondary, while defensive end Dre'Mont Jones strengthens the pass rush. Mike Vrabel has already changed the culture in New England. His partnership with Josh McDaniels provides the Patriots with the collective leadership needed to build on last year's momentum, further converting the roster's talent into postseason success.

Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl (17-1)

Eric Moody: Philadelphia is an intriguing pick at these odds. The Eagles are just two years removed from a championship, have reached three Super Bowls since 2017 and face the league's seventh-easiest schedule based on 2026 win totals, with many of their toughest games coming on their home field. Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith give the offense plenty of firepower, while Vic Fangio leads a defense that allowed the sixth-fewest points last season. This roster is capable of another deep postseason run, and the price is appealing.

AFC East

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Division, conference and Super Bowl best bets

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